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Will Global Threats Bring an End to the Housing Boom?

will global threats bring an end to the housing boom

While researching topics for this blog I came across an interesting report that talks about home price expectations and what factors will affect it. It seems that Zillow® contracts a company called Pulsenomics® to survey over 100 economist and real estate experts to get their opinions on the timing and possible triggers for the next U.S. recession and how it affects the housing market.

It all boils down to a 73 percent chance that the next U.S. recession will begin by the end of 2020 according to the expert panel but they don’t believe that housing market will be as affected by it as it has in the past. The panel believe that a geopolitical crisis will be the next trigger.

Despite that fact that it has taken 10 years for the housing market to recover from the last recession these experts expect home prices to rise 5.1 percent for 2017 which is up from 4.4 percent earlier in the year. First-time and move-up buyers will face the most challenges in buying a home due to the national low inventory of homes but the years ahead may give them more bargaining power. Employment incomes are growing faster than home values which may allow current renters to become homeowners.

So, if this panel of experts believe that the next recession will hit by 2019 (52%) then the housing market has a few years in which to continue growth and gains before global markets are affected. Home values have continued to climb past $200,000 by June 2017 for the first time ever. If we push out to around 2020, the panel’s probability jumps to 73% again triggered by a geopolitical crisis. The next trigger factors that might induce a recession are monetary policy, a stock market correction or a political gridlock.

The next recession will have a moderate impact on U.S. housing with San Francisco and Miami being most affected. Other possible affected cities would be Los Angeles, New York, San Diego and Seattle. Below is a chart that ranks the possible recession factors per the panel.

what factors are most likely to trigger the next recession

And what does this mean for you? Looking at the numbers I would suggest making any real estate deals by 2019 or if you can afford it make them now. Make sure you are already set up in an existing home before the next recession hits. With mortgage loan rates still well below historical records now is the time to take advantage and get your move on!

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And remember if you, a friend or family member need assistance with selling or buying a home I can help. Referrals and people needing relocation assistance are welcome! Search Single Family homes in Greenville. Search Condos and Townhomes in Greenville.

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